Food for thought – In Berlin, Musk said one car body every 45 seconds taking into account 25% downtime at Berlin. This looks about right when compared to video of the gigapress at Fremont. They have 8 gigapresses = 4 press pairs. This works out to about 130,000 cars per press pair or around 525,000 cars at Berlin. Looks like 12 presses possibly 14 going in at Austin. Say 12 to be conservative. But not all are going in immediately. So figure 8 by year end there. = 1 million run rate at Austin by end of 2022. Both sites have room for additional factories. Some time ago Musk said that the two sites would cover expansion through 2024. So, while some are disappointed at no announcements of new factory sites until 2023, I like it. They have trained crews at both sites. I would prefer to see those folks start building new factories same site. Should go up in under a year now that everyone from foundation diggers to local authorities know the drill.
So, I’m guessing – Between 2 and 4 additional factories at Berlin and Austin and three more at sites around the world including one on the East Coast of the US and NV expanded to cover complete site for TeslaSemi. And figure faster run rates as the factories are tuned. Say 600k per factory. 3 Austin, 2 Berlin, 1 East Coast USA, 1 India and 1 more China. By end of 2026. Add in Shanghai and Fremont ramped to 800k each and we end up with 6.5 million vehicles / year run rate by end of 2026 . ASPs will be down but Profits will stay same or higher per car. AND – Expect JV with at least 1 Japanese car maker or another plant in Japan by then so make it 7.2 Million by then. Could be more but hard to imagine it will be fewer than that. And then there is the energy business . . .
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