Up To Date Cost Curves for Batteries, Solar and Wind

PV Solar Cells Linear Plot

UPDATE:  In 2015 the price of solar modules had dropped to $0.57 / Watt.

By Clayton Handleman

It has been observed for that for manufactured products, each time the total amount of that product is doubled, the cost declines by a certain percentage.  This was first observed in the aircraft industry and since then has been seen in products from calculators to flat panel televisions and even solar modules.  For silicon solar modules the cost reduction per doubling is 17%.  Graphs showing this are called experience curves.  There is a long historical precedent for this in photovoltaics but it also has occurred with wind power and is now happening with Li-ion batteries.

See More Links at the bottom of this post.

UPDATE:  Solar now coming in under $30 / MWhr

PV Experience Curve through 2012

PV Experience Curve, PV Cost Curves

Wind Cost ReductionWind Experience Curves, Wind Cost Curves, Cost Reduction Curves

Li Ion compared to PVIUPDATE:  Graph above added July 2015

Li-Ion battery Improvement Curve

a disruptive technology

Experience Curves Nuc Ren comparedComparison of Experience Curve for Nuclear vs that for Solar

Utility Scale PVUPDATE July 2015: PPA signed for PV power under $40 / MWhr HERE

The Disruptive Nature of Renewables

And PV Installed costs are dropping as well with Germany leading the way.

World lithium availability

Li Ion endurance ZhangY_JES_2009

Updates in PV Technology Here

Utility scale PV cost reductions

Bloomberg Presentation

McKinsey – Grid Parity is coming .

This Paper and this one used experience curves to predict today’s PV module prices.

See Also – Capacity Increases

Lots of graphics on Cost of Solar

Mainstream sources consistently underestimate growth of renewables.

Clayton Handleman, EV Battery Experience Curves, Li-Ion Cost Curves, Battery Cost Curves

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21 Responses to Up To Date Cost Curves for Batteries, Solar and Wind

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